Trump vs. Fentanyl: What Do Tariffs Have To Do With Fentanyl?
President Trump says the fentanyl crisis is so dire that it justifies emergency tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. By putting a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, Trump argues he's cutting off the flow of the synthetic opioid that's killing tens of thousands of Americans every year. But here's the question: Are they actually going to stop fentanyl?
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The Justification: A National Emergency Declaration
In February 2025, Trump declared a national emergency under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), linking fentanyl trafficking to a broader national security threat. According to the official White House statement:
"President Trump is taking bold action to hold Mexico, Canada, and China accountable to their promises of halting illegal immigration and stopping poisonous fentanyl and other drugs from flowing into our country."
That's a bold move that puts America's three biggest trading partners in the crosshairs.
Key Statistics: U.S. Involvement in Fentanyl Smuggling
Before we assume tariffs will solve the fentanyl problem, let's focus on one question: How is fentanyl smuggled into the U.S.?
It's not as simple as punishing China or sealing off the Mexican border. The data paints a much more complicated (and domestic) picture. Let's take a look at these fentanyl smuggling statistics.
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Between 2019 and 2024, U.S. citizens accounted for 80.9% of convicted fentanyl traffickers in southwest border districts.
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Between 2015 and 2024, only 8% of the fentanyl that entered the U.S. was seized by the Border Patrol.
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According to the United States Sentencing Commission, 86.2% of the fentanyl trafficking offenses were by U.S. citizens in 2021.
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According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, over 90% of seized fentanyl is caught at Ports of Entry, not between them. This means the vast majority of the fentanyl that U.S. authorities catch or intercept is being smuggled through legal, official border crossings, like checkpoints for vehicles, trucks, and pedestrians. Most of it is hidden in vehicles driven by U.S. citizens, not "border crossers" or migrants as often assumed.
Fentanyl Facts: Why Trump Is Blaming Trade Partners
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China has long been accused of manufacturing precursor chemicals used to make fentanyl, which are then shipped to Mexico.
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Mexico is the primary transit country where cartels produce and traffic fentanyl across the U.S. border.
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While Canada has been mentioned in discussions about fentanyl trafficking, data indicates that the volume of fentanyl entering the U.S. from Canada is minimal. The Council on Foreign Relations states that less than 1% of fentanyl in the U.S. comes from the northern border of Canada.
Will Tariffs Stop Fentanyl? Experts Are Skeptical
The Trump administration's strategy of imposing tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China to curb the influx of fentanyl into the United States has been met with widespread skepticism from experts and policymakers. Some reasons experts are skeptical include the following.
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Tariffs don't stop smugglers. Cartels aren't shipping fentanyl in crates with customs forms. They're stuffing it into cars, hiding it in legal shipments, and otherwise bypassing detection.
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International relationships are negatively affected. After restarting anti-fentanyl cooperation in 2023, China says the new U.S. tariffs undermine trust and make it harder to keep working together on the crisis. According to Reuters, a Senior Chinese foreign ministry official was recorded saying that "the U.S. was returning kindness with hostility." China fentanyl tariffs have been met with strong opposition and retaliatory tariffs from Beijing, which views them as politically motivated and counterproductive to joint drug enforcement goals.
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Domestic demand is the real problem. You can't tariff your way out of a drug crisis. Experts argue that focusing on supply-side measures like tariffs ignores the root cause of the crisis. Without addressing addiction and providing treatment, the demand for fentanyl remains high, and traffickers will find ways to meet it.
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Increasing costs and inflation for Americans. The new tariffs are expected to cost the average U.S. household over $1,200 in 2025. That's the biggest tax increase since 1993, and it will raise prices on everything from cars to household goods.
Who Pays Tariffs? Hint: It's Not the Fentanyl Smugglers
How do tariffs work? Higher tariffs sound like a punishment for foreign governments or shady suppliers. But here's the truth: When the U.S. places tariffs on goods from Mexico, China, or Canada, it's American importers who pay the bill.
That cost trickles down fast to your grocery store, your hardware supplier, your car dealer. Maple syrup? More expensive. Building materials? You guessed it. Electronics? Yep.
Fentanyl isn't entering the U.S. through taxed shipping lanes; it's sneaking in through cars, mail, and legal crossings, often with the help of U.S. citizens. Meanwhile, the real drivers of the crisis—domestic addiction, treatment gaps, and demand—go unaddressed.
